MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1113 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 VALID JAN 26/0000 UTC THRU JAN 29/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THU/FRI ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE, SO PREFER A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN US/CAN BORDER THU/FRI ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: CANADIAN/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z UKMET IS THE WEAKEST ALOFT/QUICKEST AT THE SURFACE WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ITS USUAL BIAS. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS BEST FITS THE MINIMAL 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CLUSTERING, AND IS PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SYSTEM MOVING BY THE US/CAN BORDER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z UKMET IS THE STRONGEST ALOFT/SLOWEST AT THE SURFACE, WHILE THE 00Z NAM IS ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING SUPPORTS A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. FRONTS MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUE/WED ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ITS USUAL BIAS. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY THU ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL EASTWARD TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE GUIDANCE'S PAST DAY OF RUNS. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT, AS WELL AS THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, BELIEVE THE 12Z UKMET IS TOO FAR NORTHWEST. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH