MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 127 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016 VALID FEB 25/0000 UTC THRU FEB 28/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FRONTAL TIMING IN THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND SAT & SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM IS A SLOW OUTLIER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS TRAILING FRONT (ITS USUAL BIAS). WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEANS, PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. CYCLONE IN THE MIDWEST SUNDAY MORNING ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH A SHORTWAVE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE 00Z NAM IS A UNIQUE NORTHEAST OUTLIER, SHOWING A LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS IT CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE NEAR IA/SOUTHERN MN. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN/00Z GFS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SYSTEM LIFTING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND THU & FRI SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEMS, SO PREFER A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH