MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1117 PM EST THU MAR 03 2016 VALID MAR 04/0000 UTC THRU MAR 07/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS ...DEEPENING LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE EAST COAST... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM IS A BIT LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY FRI AND THEN EXITING QUICKLY OUT TO SEA THROUGH SAT. THE 12Z UKMET IS THE FARTHEST EAST SOLUTION WITH THE TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS TENDS TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE BUT HAS SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST GEFS MEAN. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND SUPPORTED BY THE ECENS MEAN. WILL PREFER A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE CAMPS WHICH WOULD SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE EFFECTIVELY IN TRACK BETWEEN THE NAM AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. ...SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST... ,,,ENERGY CROSSING THE OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE STRONGER MODEL CLUSTERING FAVORS A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...WITH THE 12Z UKMET LIKELY TOO FLAT/PROGRESSIVE...AND THE 00Z NAM A BIT TOO SLOW. THE LATEST GEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEAN SUPPORT THE GFS/ECMWF CAMP...WHICH IS OVERALL A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NAM AND ALSO THE CMC SOLUTION. WILL PREFER A GFS/ECMWF BLEND AT THIS POINT. ...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES/IMPULSES AIMED INTO THE WESTERN U.S.... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE A PARADE OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS WILL BE UNDERCUTTING A DEEP VORTEX JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF AK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE ENERGY IMPACTING THE WEST COAST AND GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN A MEAN LAYER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS THE ENERGY MOVES INLAND. THE BULK OF THE SURFACE WAVE ACTIVITY AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL TEND TO LIFT NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH THE 12Z UKMET AND SOME EXTENT THE 12Z CMC APPEARING TO BE OVERDEVELOPING THEIR RESPECT SURFACE LOWS SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF. BY SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON...THE 00Z NAM/12Z CMC AND 12Z UKMET ALL HAVE STRONGER SURFACE WAVES APPROACHING NORTHERN CA AND SOUTHWEST OR...WHICH IS A BIT DEEPER THAN THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEANS. THERE IS FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THE SHORTWAVE INTENSITY APPROACH CA ON SUN/MON...BUT AT THIS POINT SINCE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS TEND TO FAVOR THE GFS/ECMWF CAMP...A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL BE PREFERRED...BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS. ...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUN/MON... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUN WILL BE EJECTING OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON MON AND WILL FOSTER CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MT HIGH PLAINS BY SUN NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE EVOLUTION. THE 12Z CMC IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER...WITH THE 00Z GFS/12Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF ALL A TAD FASTER. THE 12Z UKMET THOUGH TAKES ITS SURFACE LOW A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. STRONGER MODEL CLUSTERING FAVORS THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...AND SO AGAIN A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL BE PREFERRED WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON