MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1222 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 VALID MAR 16/1200 UTC THRU MAR 20/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. UPPER LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY/SATURDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW INLAND OF THE GULF COAST WITH THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH, WHICH HAS ZERO 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE LOW SUPPORT. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET WOULD LIMIT ANY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY, WHICH IS HINTED AT IN THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, AND PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO SATURDAY WARM FRONT MOVING BY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH