MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1225 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016 VALID MAR 28/0000 UTC THRU MAR 31/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION...INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ...CONSOLIDATING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE OVERALL...THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH 12Z TUE WHEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ...DEEP CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST MON AND TUES... ...ENERGY/SURFACE LOW EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...ELONGATED TROUGH HANGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MIDWEEK... PREFERENCE: GFS/12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE OVERALL...THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES THROUGH 00Z WED. BY 12Z WED...THE GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF DIFFER A LITTLE WITH THE EJECTING LOW AS IT REACHES THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE BIT DEEPER THAN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THESE DIFFERENCES SEEM TO DECREASE AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. THE TRUE OUTLIER FROM 12Z WED ONWARD IS THE NAM...WHICH WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW BECOMES MUCH SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WED INTO EARLY THU. THE GFS..UKMET AND ECMWF ALL DIG AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS...KICKING THE EJECTING LOW MORE STEADILY TO THE EAST. THE NAM IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...ALLOWING THE EJECTING LOW TO REMAIN CLOSED OFF AND SLOWER. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... PEREIRA