MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 229 AM EDT SUN APR 03 2016 VALID APR 03/0000 UTC THRU APR 06/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WEST INTO THE PLAINS MON-WED ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE INCREASINGLY SMALL TIMING/DEPTH ISSUES ALOFT ARE TRANSLATING INTO ISSUES AT THE SURFACE WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 00Z NAM LEAVES THE SAFETY OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IS DEEMED TOO QUICK. OTHERWISE, THE 00Z RUNS OF THE UKMET/ECMWF HAVE SLOWED DOWN ALOFT TOWARDS THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN/00Z GFS/00Z UKMET IS PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING BY MIDWEST SUN/NORTHEAST MON SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST SUN/MON UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONE DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS, SO PREFER A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE TO DEAL WITH ANY LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH