MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 237 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2016 VALID MAY 06/1200 UTC THRU MAY 10/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/CMC AND ECMWF SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST SUN NIGHT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS SYSTEMS PROGRESSION. PREFER THE QUICKER CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z CMC/12Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE LEVEL OF CLUSTERING AWAY FROM THE NAM. DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUN NIGHT/MON ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 12Z UKMET IS GENERALLY THE STRONGEST SOLUTION AMONG THE MODELS ALOFT WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS...AND IS ALSO TAKING ITS HEIGHT FALLS A BIT NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE 12Z CMC ALSO APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTS IN ITS LOW CENTER BEING A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS ENERGY EDGING TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONGER MODEL CLUSTERING OVERALL TENDS TO FAVOR THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...AND THERE IS BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT TOWARD THIS CONSENSUS...SO A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL BE PREFERRED. DEEP CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD MAINE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z UKMET IS MOST OUT OF TOLERANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DIGGING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. DIFFERENCES ARE RELATIVELY SMALL AT THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY THE UKMET BECOMES A TAD STRONGER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL FAVOR A NON-UKMET CONSENSUS GIVEN BETTER MODEL CLUSTERING AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AWAY FROM THE UKMET. UPPER LOW/TROUGH SWINGING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST TONIGHT/SAT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM HANGS ON TO A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT EXITS THE EAST COAST ON SAT AND LIFTS UP TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE REMAINING MODELS ARE WELL CLUSTERED WITH TIMING AND DEPTH OTHERWISE. SO WILL FAVOR A NON-NAM CONSENSUS AS A RESULT. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON