MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1206 PM EDT SAT MAY 07 2016 VALID MAY 07/1200 UTC THRU MAY 11/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS TROUGH DIGGING DOWN NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS MON NIGHT/TUES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THE 00Z ECMWF IS BOTH QUICKER AND MORE CLOSED ALOFT THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND TENDS TO RESEMBLE THE 00Z UKMET WITH RESPECT TO DEPTH. HOWEVER...THE 00Z UKMET FOCUSES ITS HEIGHT FALLS FARTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS AND 00Z CMC THROUGH TUES. THE 00Z ECMWF DOES HAVE GENERALLY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECENS MEAN...BUT BOTH COULD BE CONSTRUED AS BEING OUTLIERS GIVEN THEIR SEPARATION FROM NCEP AND NON-NCEP MODELS ALIKE. WILL THEREFORE FAVOR A NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT. DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO MIDWEST MON/TUES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z UKMET IS QUICKEST TO PUSH ITS MID LEVEL LOW CENTER EAST INTO THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE 12Z NAM GRADUALLY BECOMING THE SLOWEST. STRONGER MODEL CLUSTERING AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FAVORS A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...AND THIS WILL BE THE PREFERENCE. TROUGHING RELOADING OVER THE NORTHEAST ON SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THERE ARE SOME MODEST DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS DROPPING DOWN OVER THE NORTHEAST ON SUN ALONG WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE PREFERRED TO RESOLVE THE SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON