MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1225 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 VALID MAY 11/0000 UTC THRU MAY 14/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z GFS/NAM EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NE PACIFIC DEEP CYCLONE ROTATING AROUND NEWFOUNDLAND TROUGHING LIFTING OUT OF NEW ENGLAND SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS, SO A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL DEAL WITH LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES EFFECTIVELY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. DEEP CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS NORTHERN CA FRIDAY NIGHT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z GFS WAS NORTHEAST OF THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS, OUTPACING THE 12Z ECMWF/18Z GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z UKMET/12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM APPEARS FINE HERE, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE WEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES PAIR OF CYCLONES MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE WITH THE FIRST CYCLONE, THE 00Z NAM/12Z CANADIAN WENT QUICKLY OUTSIDE THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE. THE 00Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF WERE WITHIN THE CLUSTERING AND PREFERRED. WITH THE SECOND CYCLONE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS CAUSED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CYCLONE THEN ACROSS ONTARIO, THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE QUICKER 00Z GFS AND SLOWER 12Z UKMET, AND WERE PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. OVERALL, THE ECMWF WAS CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/18Z GEFS MEANS WITH BOTH SYSTEMS. FOR QPF PREFERENCES, SEE OUR QPF DISCUSSION FOR MODEL PREFERENCES FROM A PRECIPITATION FORECASTING VANTAGE POINT. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH