MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 113 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 VALID MAY 28/0000 UTC THRU MAY 31/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NCEP MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SYSTEM PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE MONDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE THE ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE CONTINUES TO BE HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE MODEL ENSEMBLES...SO IT CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL PREFERENCE AT THIS POINT. HAVING NOTED THAT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN THE 12Z ECMWF BEING FASTER/FLATTER WHILE THE GFS WAS AGAIN ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: A NON-UKMET GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. NO REAL NOTEWORTHY ISSUES NOTED IN THE 28/00Z NCEP MODELS. THAT LEAVES THE 27/12Z UKMET AS BEING A BIT FASTER WITH THE CLOSED 500 MB CIRCULATION INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AZ BY MONDAY MORNING. INITIALLY CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LIFTING NE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY-UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT AND SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z RUN OF THE UKMET BACKED AWAY FROM ITS WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN WITH THE WAVE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES THE NAM ON ITS OWN. AS A RESULT...WILL INCLUDE THE 28/00Z UKMET IN THE MODEL COMPROMISE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 APPROACHING SOUTHEAST COAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE A BLEND OF THE 27/12Z ECWMF AND 28/00Z GFS...WITH WEIGHTING GIVEN TO EACH MODEL VARYING BY TIME...APPEARS TO BE THE CLOSEST MATCH TO THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST. REFER TO DISCUSSIONS AND BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND FORECAST REASONING. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... BANN