MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 257 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 VALID MAY 29/0000 UTC THRU JUN 01/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NRN PLAINS TUE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND BOTH SHOWED PRETTY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THAT MEANT THAT THEY CONTINUED TO HAVE THE SUPPORT OF THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE NAM LOOKED TO BE THE SLOW OUTLIER. CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ALL STILL DEPICTED A CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH HAD THE SUPPORT OF THE EC MEANS. THE NAM HAD SEVERAL SMALL MID LEVEL LOWS OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE OTHER MODELS...WHICH SEEMED TO BE TOO MUCH OF AN EASTERN OUTLIER WHILE THE UKMET SEEMED TO BE TOO WEAK. SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE CONSENSUS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM BONNIE APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ REFER TO DISCUSSIONS AND BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND FORECAST REASONING. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... BANN