MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 230 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016 VALID JUN 02/1200 UTC THRU JUN 06/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE... PREFERENCE: NON-NAM BLEND CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING BONNIE LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. A MODEL CONSENSUS LED BY THE MORE TIGHTLY TO THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS MINUS THE 12Z NAM MATCHES WELL WITH THE NHC PREFERENCE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FOR MORE INFORMATION ON BONNIE. ...DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ...UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE MIDWEST ON SAT/SUN... PREFERENCE: NON-GFS CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE WHILE THE OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION...PARTICULARLY BY LATE SAT AND SUN FROM THE UPPER-MID MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...THE 12Z GFS BECOMES THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AS IT DIGS MORE ENERGY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE LACK OF SUPPORT FOR THE GFS AT THIS TIME SUPPORTS THE REASONING FOR GOING WITH A NON-GFS CONSENSUS. 19Z UPDATE: THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC ALL CONTINUED TO DRIFT AWAY FROM THE MORE CONSOLIDATED AND SLOWER 12Z GFS EVEN A BIT MORE THAN THE 12Z NAM; PRESENTING LESS WAVELENGTH SPACING BETWEEN THE LEAD WAVE AND ENERGY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO A BROADER NEGATIVE TILTED LARGER SCALE TROF. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A NON-GFS CONSENSUS AT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. ...CLOSED LOW ADVANCING EAST INTO TEXAS AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z CMC BECOMES A FASTER OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE 12Z NAM IS ALSO SEEN AS BEING SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 00Z UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF ARE SLOWER AND ARE ALSO MORE DETACHED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS DROPPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE 06Z GEFS MEAN SUGGESTED A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION ACTUALLY LIKE THE 00Z CMC...BUT THE 00Z ECENS MEAN SUPPORTS THE SLOWER UKMET/ECMWF CAMP. THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER TOWARD THE UKMET/ECMWF CAMP...AND AS A COMPROMISE FOR NOW...A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF WILL BE PREFERRED. 19Z UPDATE: THOUGH THE 12Z CMC HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE MASS FIELDS CONTINUE TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE EAST IN LINE WITH THE 12Z NAM....OTHERWISE THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET REMAIN SIMILAR IN THEIR SOLUTION COMPARED TO 00Z RUNS...AND AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO PREFER A 12Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF BLEND OVERALL. ...UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CA BY SUN... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE GUIDANCE AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CA BY SUN...BUT A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE PREFERRED AT THIS TIME TO RESOLVE THIS FOR NOW. 19Z UPDATE: THE 12Z NON-NCEP MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER AND REMAIN A SHADE NORTH OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM WITH THE INNER CORE BY DAY 3 BUT THE OVERALL SHAPE/EVOLUTION AND POSITION ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A HIGH CONFIDENCE GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE OVERALL. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON/GALLINA