MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1229 AM EDT SAT JUN 04 2016 VALID JUN 04/0000 UTC THRU JUN 07/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION...INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ...UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SAT/SUN... ...COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC... PREFERENCE: NAM/GFS/12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE OVERALL THE NAM/GFS/12Z ECMWF ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES. THE 12Z UKMET IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER...WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT IS SLOWER TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. ...CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS EAST TX TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE OVERALL THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CA ON SUN... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL REMAINS ONE OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...OVERALL THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUN... PREFERENCE: GFS/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN ITS 12Z RUN -- PLACING IT INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF INTO TUE MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF INTO NORTH FLORIDA. A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE FALLS NEAR THE MIDST OF THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD...BOOKENDED BY THE CANADIAN -- WHICH RACES THE SYSTEM UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND THE NAM -- WHICH DRIFTS THE CENTER WEST OF THE OTHER MODELS INTO NORTHERN GULF TUE MORNING. REFER TO NHC OUTLOOKS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... PEREIRA