MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 419 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 VALID JUN 07/0000 UTC THRU JUN 10/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... FINAL 00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE ECMWF ...UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.... ...REINFORCING SHORTWAVES DROPPING ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST/MID ATL WED-FRI... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN QUE REDEVELOPS FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTH...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE LOW AND THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO DIG TO ITS SOUTH AND SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. ONE RELATIVE EXCEPTION IS WITH REGARD TO THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WED MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY...WITH THE GFS BEING A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ...TROPICAL STORM COLIN... PREFERENCE: SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND IS ONCE AGAIN ONE OF THE WEAKER PIECES OF GUIDANCE. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF OF THE COAST IT DEVELOPS A SECOND CENTER FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAT IT MAKES THE PRIMARY CENTER AS IT MOVES OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS SOME SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT...BUT NOT THE DEGREE THAT THE GFS IS SHOWING. COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...THE ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HAVE ALL MADE A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE RIGHT WITH THE TRACK AS IT MOVES OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TODAY. THIS PLACES THE ECMWF...THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE LATEST OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST AND HAS INCREASED THE SPREAD BETWEEN THEM AND THE GFS. REFER TO NHC GUIDANCE FOR FURTHER DETAILS CONCERNING FORECAST TRACK/INTENSITY OF THIS STORM. ...WEAK UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... PREFERENCE: MODEL CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS NOTED. ...UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST BY TUE INTO THU... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OVERALL...THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF IT AND SUPPRESSING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... PEREIRA