MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 239 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 VALID JUN 10/0000 UTC THRU JUN 13/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z GFS WAS A TOUCH FASTER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ITS USUAL BIAS. PREFER THE SLOWER CONSENSUS (00Z NAM, 00Z UKMET, 00Z CANADIAN, 00Z ECMWF) HERE, AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SYSTEM TO DISLODGE/KICK THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY OUT OF THE REASON. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE IN THIS PREFERENCE. SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-ECMWF COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z ECMWF WAS QUICKER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM'S PROGRESSION, WHICH IS BEING FORCED BY A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. WITH ITS PARENT ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTING A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION, PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS, 00Z CANADIAN, 00Z UKMET, AND 00Z NAM WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THERE ARE DISTINCT DEPTH ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE 00Z NAM BY FAR THE STRONGEST. THIS REGION SHOULD BE FAVORED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND DEEP VORTEX OVER ATLANTIC CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. DUE TO THIS, WILL FAVOR A SOLUTION ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN IS PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. DEEP CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH ME SUNDAY NIGHT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT, THE 00Z NAM TRACKS THIS SYSTEM MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE -- ONE OF ITS USUAL BIASES. SINCE THE OTHER GUIDANCE FORMS A STRONG CONSENSUS, PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SECONDARY UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE IN QUEBEC SUNDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z GFS WAS VERY QUICK TO SEND THIS SYSTEM SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NH BY MONDAY MORNING -- A KNOWN GFS BIAS. THERE IS A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE 12Z ECMWF/18Z GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS, WITH EACH SUPPORTING ITS OPERATIONAL RUN. THE AVAILABLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS, THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE VORTEX MOVING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AT THAT TIME SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT SYSTEM IN THE BINARY/FUJIWARA INTERACTION WHICH ARGUES FOR SOME PROGRESSION FOR THE SYSTEM IN QUEBEC. THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST IDEA FOR THE TIME BEING, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE GROWING CONSENSUS. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH