MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 230 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 VALID JUN 12/0000 UTC THRU JUN 15/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW MOVING INTO MN WEDNESDAY MORNING ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GFS/NAM/ECMWF COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AT 500 HPA, A 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE BEST FITS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, WITH THE 00Z NAM THE FARTHEST SOUTH -- ONE OF ITS USUAL BIASES -- AND THE 00Z CANADIAN THE QUICKEST. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS ANOTHER ISSUE, AS THE 00Z NAM BEST FITS THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING. INTERESTINGLY, THIS IS A COMPROMISE POSITION FOR THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z UKMET IS MORE NORTHERLY/DEEPER WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM AND THE 00Z CANADIAN QUICKER SOLUTION SHOWS THEIR SURFACE LOWS LEAVING THE SAFE CONFINES OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF, 00Z NAM, AND 00Z GFS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. BROAD UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUN & MON NIGHT SYSTEM MOVING FROM TX/OK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS, SO PREFER A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE HERE TO DEAL WITH DETAIL ISSUES EFFECTIVELY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH