MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1211 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 VALID JUN 28/1200 UTC THRU JUL 02/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. DEEP CYCLONE STRENGTHENING IN SOUTHEAST CANADA FRONTAL POSITION IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST/MID-SOUTH ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS UNIQUELY STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ONE OF ITS USUAL BIASES -- WHICH LEADS TO A QUICKER FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH FROM FRIDAY MORNING ONWARD. WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/12Z NAM/12Z GFS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ WITH THE OTHER FOUR SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE LOWER 48, THE GUIDANCE SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE TO DEAL WITH ANY LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH