MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 229 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 VALID JUN 29/1200 UTC THRU JUL 03/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/UKMET CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NE...ITS USUAL BIAS -- WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS RATHER WEAK WITH THE PORTION OVER NE. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE CONSENSUS -- 12Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF, 12Z UKMET -- WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. DEEP CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/UKMET CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM/12Z CANADIAN ARE MORE SOUTHERLY/SLOWER IN LIFTING THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE -- THEIR USUAL BIAS. AS THIS SYSTEM FORMS/DEEPENS, THE UPSTREAM RIDGE IS WEAKENING, WHICH ARGUES AGAINST A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION. THIS COULD MEAN TOO MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITHIN CANADIAN/NAM SOLUTIONS, DESPITE THEIR REASONABLE FRONTAL PLACEMENT. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF IS ADVISED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ WITH THE OTHER FOUR SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE LOWER 48, THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH THESE OTHER SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH ANY LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH