MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 239 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 VALID JUN 30/0000 UTC THRU JUL 03/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH FINAL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS...00Z ECMWF...00Z UKMET CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE SAT...AND IS EVEN A BIT AHEAD OF THE REMAINING DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET REMAIN RATHER SIMILAR WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE. THE ONE CAVEAT ABOUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS IT APPEARS TOO WEAK WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF SERN COLORADO AT 00Z/01 AND 00Z/02. DEEP CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z MODELS HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD EACH OTHER...AND WHILE MINOR DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN...ENOUGH AGREEMENT IS IN PLACE TO PREFER A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE. SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CLIPPING NRN PORTIONS OF THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS SHOW SIMILARLY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER COASTAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z MODELS HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD EACH OTHER...AND WHILE MINOR DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN...ENOUGH AGREEMENT IS IN PLACE TO PREFER A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... OTTO