MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1240 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2016 VALID JUL 05/1200 UTC THRU JUL 09/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW...WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES. THUS A GENERAL MODEL MODEL BLEND SHOULD SUFFICE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING THE NRN PLAINS THU AND GREAT LAKES FRI ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF/UKMET CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE IN GENERAL THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO TRENDS TOWARDS A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION. THE 0Z UKMET LIES PRETTY MUCH IN BETWEEN THE 0Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS. THE 0Z GEM APPEARS TO BE LAGGING RECENT TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE 12Z NAM REMAINS A BIT STRONGER AND MORE CLOSED OFF WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS ALSO AN OUTLIER. THUS A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF/UKMET APPEARS TO REPRESENT THE MOST PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED/THU ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/NAM AND 0Z ECMWF CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE QUICK ZONAL FLOW. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT COMES ON THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MAINE. IN GENERAL A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM AND THE 0Z ECMWF APPEARS TO RESULT IN A GOOD CONSENSUS APPROACH. THE 0Z UKMET/GEM REMAIN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...BEING A BIT QUICKER/STRONGER. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING INTO THE WEAK MID ATLANTIC TROUGH ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST EACH DAY TO RIDE EAST IN THE ZONAL FLOW INTO THE WEAK TROUGHING SITUATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE 0Z UKMET REMAINS AN OUTLIER BEING TOO FLAT WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH ONE OR MORE OF THESE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...AND IS THUS ALSO NOT PREFERRED. A SIMPLE 12Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF BLEND APPEARS TO REPRESENT THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME AT THIS TIME. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... CHENARD