MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 237 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2016 VALID JUL 07/1200 UTC THRU JUL 11/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/CMC AND ECMWF ...EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW...WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT IS IN PLACE SUCH THAT A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE PREFERRED. ...UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH SAT... ...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW REACHING THE NORTHEAST BY SAT... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OVERALL WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES...THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE NON-NCEP SOLUTIONS ALL HAVE TENDED TO TREND A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE 12Z CYC...AND ARE NOW REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS WITH RESPECT TO THE HEIGHT FALLS. THERE IS SOME SPREAD WITH THE DETAILS OF THE SURFACE LOW EVOLUTION AND ESPECIALLY BY SUN AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND. BASED ON THE DECREASING LEVEL OF SPREAD AND BETTER CLUSTERING...A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE COULD BE PREFERRED HERE...BUT OVERALL THE GFS AND ECMWF BETTER REFLECT THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THIS WILL BE PREFERRED. ...SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY SAT... ...ENERGY CROSSING THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS ON SUN... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE A SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO EJECT EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS SAT AND SUN...AND WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED. THE 12Z CMC BY FAR IS A STRONG OUTLIER AND WILL BE DISMISSED. THE 12Z UKMET APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE. THE STRONGER MODEL CLUSTER RESIDES WITH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...AND THUS A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL BE PREFERRED. ...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI... ...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE REGION... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM. ...SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST TODAY CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON FRI... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM HANGS ONTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE SHORTWAVE EJECTING THROUGH THE MIDWEST TODAY AND THEN REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON FRI. THE 12Z CMC FOR ITS PART APPEARS TO BE A TAD TOO WEAK. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF ALL CLUSTER WELL TOGETHER IN BETWEEN...AND A CONSENSUS OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL BE PREFERRED. ...SHORTWAVE OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC BY EARLY FRI... PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM BECOMES A BIT DEEPER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THIS SYSTEM. BETTER MODEL CLUSTERING/AGREEMENT RESIDES WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THUS A NON-NAM CONSENSUS WILL BE PREFERRED. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON