MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1226 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2016 VALID JUL 09/0000 UTC THRU JUL 12/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION...INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE ...CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUN AND NORTHERN PLAINS MON... ...SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MON... PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/UKMET BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW AS IT CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUN INTO NORTHERN PLAINS MON. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM SURFACE LOW IS THE FURTHEST WEST MEMBER OF THE CONSENSUS (INCLUDING THE 21Z SREF) AND FURTHER WEST THAT THE 12Z NAM MON. THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM...AND CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MON. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET BLEND REPRESENTS THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW...AND IT IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF/18Z GEFS MEAN POSITIONS. THUS...THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET BLEND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. ...SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY SUN... PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY SAT INTO SUN...AND THE 00Z GFS HAS BECOME A BIT CLOSER TO THIS SOLUTION. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION WITH THE SHORT WAVE...BUT CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS POSITION (GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE/18Z GEFS MEAN). BOTH THE 12Z UKMET/CMC ARE WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE...WHICH DOES NOT FIT THE CONSENSUS. THEREFORE...THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BLEND IS PREFERRED...DUE PRIMARILY TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SUPPORT. ...SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUN... ...SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUN... PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BLEND CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH THE SHORT WAVE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND SUN INTO MON. IT IS ALSO CLOSE WITH THE CONSENSUS (INCLUDING THE 21Z SREF MEAN) WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN NY STATE LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN...BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS WITH THE SECONDARY LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 00Z GFS IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEMS...INCLUDING THE SECONDARY LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE SUN INTO MON. THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE CLOSE TO THIS SOLUTION AS WELL...AS A 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BLEND IS PREFERRED. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... HAYES