MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 236 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 VALID JUL 10/1200 UTC THRU JUL 14/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/CMC AND ECMWF ...MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH TUES... ...SURFACE LOW IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY MON/TUES... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE STRONGER MODEL CLUSTERING AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM RESIDES WITH THE 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF WHICH COLLECTIVELY HAVE BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AS WELL. THE 12Z NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z CMC ARE MORE OUT OF TOLERANCE BY COMPARISON AND BY TUES ARE APPEARING TO BE GENERALLY TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. ...WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS SUN INTO MON... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST WITH THE TROUGH AS IT FORMS AND CROSSES THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY. THE 12Z GFS IS CLOSE TO THIS SOLUTION...BUT NOT AS DEEP. THE 12Z ECMWF IS JUST A TAD WEAKER THAN THE 12Z GFS. BETTER MODEL CLUSTERING AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT RESIDES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF CAMP...AND A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL STILL BE PREFERRED. ...MID LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE NORTHEAST TODAY/TONIGHT... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELD DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE PREFERRED. ...CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUES... PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM REMAINS A FASTER SOLUTION IN TAKING AN UPPER LOW CLOSER INTO COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TUES AND WED AND WITH A LITTLE MORE TROUGHING IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A RESULT. THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS SLOWER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL FAVOR A NON-NAM CONSENSUS BASED ON THIS AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AWAY FROM THE NAM. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON