MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1230 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 VALID JUL 11/1200 UTC THRU JUL 15/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE ...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS MT TODAY MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THU... ...SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE EATS COAST BY THU... PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT (ALTHOUGH IS STILL A BIT QUICKER). THE SOUTHERN LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEAR THE MN/CANADA BORDER BY 12Z WED SEEMS SUSPECT IN THE LATEST GFS. ALTHOUGH WILL WAIT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE BEFORE RULING IT OUT. GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH TIMING...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM A COMPROMISE OF THOSE SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. THE NAM/UKMET/GEM ARE GENERALLY NOT TOO FAR OFF...BUT ALL APPEAR TO HAVE ISSUES WITH AT LEAST ONE ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM. ...WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS MON/MON NIGHT... ...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THESE FEATURES. THUS A GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS SHOULD HANDLE THIS WELL. ...CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WHILE INITIALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY WED INTO THU. THE 12Z GFS/NAM AND 0Z GEM KEEP THE COMPACT CLOSED LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH OFF THE CANADIAN COAST...WITH THE 0Z ECMWF/UKMET MORE PROGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IT TOWARDS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WA COAST. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THE GUIDANCE FROM RUN TO RUN. THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 0Z ECMWF MEAN SUPPORT A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF CAMP. HOWEVER THE LAST THREE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED FURTHER NORTHWEST/SLOWER. SO WILL WAIT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE TO MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION...AND FOR NOW RECOMMEND A SOLUTION HALFWAY BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... CHENARD