MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1225 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 VALID JUL 12/0000 UTC THRU JUL 15/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION...INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE ...CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO THROUGH THU... ...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST THU... PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM WAS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO...AS WAS THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM WAS SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST THU...AND THE 00Z GFS TRENDED A BIT FASTER (WHICH AS THE SUPPORT OF THE 18Z GEFS MEAN). BLENDING THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF (WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN) WITH THE FASTER 00Z GFS SOLUTION SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT NEAR THE EAST COAST EARLY FRI. ...SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THU/THU NIGHT... ...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI... PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM IS STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS WITH WITH THE SHORT WAVE AS IT DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THU INTO THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER COLD FRONT PASSAGE. BY CONTRAST...THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF WITH BOTH FEATURES...AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 18Z GEFS MEAN. A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. ...CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRI... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS WERE CLOSE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM ENTERING WA LATER THU INTO EARLY FRI...AND ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON THIS...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS PREFERRED...WITH AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... HAYES