MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1223 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 VALID JUL 14/0000 UTC THRU JUL 17/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE ...CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO ONTARIO THU... ...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THU PREFERENCE: OPERATIONAL MODEL BLEND CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS WERE CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE HEADING INTO ONTARIO...AS WELL AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. SINCE THERE IS SUCH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEMS...AN OPERATIONAL BLEND IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. ...SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI... ...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC... PREFERENCE: OPERATIONAL MODEL BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI...AND HAS SIMILAR TIMING TO THE CONSENSUS WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT/TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS STRONGER AND FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE...AND REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING FRI AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN EARLIER MODEL CYCLES... SO AN OPERATIONAL MODEL BLEND REMAINS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES INTRODUCED BY THE 00Z GFS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS AVERAGE. ...CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FRI/FRI NIGHT... PREFERENCE: OPERATIONAL MODEL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH THE 00Z NAM/GFS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONCERNING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRI INTO FRI NIGHT (INCLUDING THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 18Z GEFS MEAN POSITIONS). BASED ON THE TIGHT CLUSTERING... AN OPERATIONAL MODEL BLEND REMAINS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... HAYES