MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1237 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 VALID AUG 24/0000 UTC THRU AUG 27/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING INITIAL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 700-500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES WED AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THU ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET BLEND CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z NCEP RUNS WERE CLOSE TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS IN TERMS OF BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET STILL HAVE THE SUPPORT OF THE ENSEMBLES AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z NAM REMAINS A BIT ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE SOLNS...AND NEITHER OF THE NCEP MODELS HAS TAKEN ON THE SHAPE OF THE CMC. AS SUCH...THERE WAS LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE PREVIOUS MODEL CHOICES EXCEPT TO INCLUDE THE 24/00Z GFS IN PLACE OF THE 23/12Z GFS. MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN...MOVING INTO SRN ONTARIO THU ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS...23/12Z ECMWF BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND WOULD SUGGEST THE 12Z CMC/UKMET ARE TOO QUICK TO PROGRESS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EASTWARD...WHILE THE 23/12Z ECMWF WAS THE SLOWEST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFS WAS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WILL MATCH WELL WITH THE ENSEMBLE SOLNS AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE GROUND SOLN. MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...WEAKENING INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WED ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE MODELS SHOW SIMILARLY WITH THIS FEATURE. SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT WESTERN SIDE OF WESTERN U.S. POSITIVE TILT TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES BY THU ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON 12Z CMC BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE 12Z CMC...THE LATEST MODELS STILL GENERALLY SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE CMC LOOKS TO HAVE MUCH MORE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WRN TROUGH THAN THE REMAINING DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. BANN www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...