MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 242 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 VALID SEP 15/0000 UTC THRU SEP 18/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION ALONG WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TROPICAL STORM JULIA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/ECMWF BLEND CONFIDENCE: REFER TO NHC TROPICAL STORM JULIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. WHILE OTHER MODELS MAY MATCH THE 03Z NHC ADVISORY AT TIMES...THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE CLOSEST TO NHC FOR ALL HOURS THROUGH 12Z/18. CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING...LIFTING INTO SRN ONTARIO WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH SAT MORNING SURFACE LOW OVER N-CNTRL U.S. FRI WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS...00Z ECMWF...00Z UKMET BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM IS WEAKER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE N-CNTRL U.S. EARLY FRI...WHILE THE 00Z CMC REMAINS ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTH. THE ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN A SLOWING TREND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FRI EVENING...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE TREND WILL REVERSE. AT THIS TIME...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MATCH REASONABLY WELL WITH EACH OTHER AND THE LATEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA CA BY SUN MORNING ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE MODELS SHOW SIMILARLY WITH THIS SYSTEM. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SAT MORNING ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH A FAST/QUASI-ZONAL UPSTREAM JET OVER THE PACIFIC...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COME IN RATHER FAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SOME FASTER TRENDS NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OF MODEL RUNS. WHILE THE LATEST MODELS SOME SOME MINOR TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC SUITE. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SUITE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING BUT VARIES IN DEPTH THROUGH 12Z/18. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... OTTO