MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 252 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2016 VALID OCT 10/1200 UTC THRU OCT 14/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... FINAL 12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING PREFERENCE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ UPPER LOW/POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA LEADING TO SFC LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE EMERGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTING THROUGH GREAT LAKES BY THURS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS GOT INTO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THEMSELVES WITH RESPECT TO A SOLID CONSENSUS IN PLACEMENT/TIMING AND GENERAL ORIENTATION OF THE POSITIVE TILTED TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAS MOST EVIDENT AT THE SURFACE WITH THE SURFACE LOW(S) AND STEADY EASTWARD PUSH OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE US INTO THE GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL MS VALLEY BY THURS WITH REMARKABLE ALIGNMENT. ABOUT THE ONLY TREND NOTED IN THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE WAS THAT THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TROUGH WAS MOVING A TAD FASTER AND THE HEIGHTS WERE JUST A LITTLE LOW IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THAT WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NCEP MODELS. THE DIFFERENCES WERE REALLY QUITE MINOR. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND SHOULD STILL WORK FINE. SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE/COMMA HEAD OVER THE PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING WITH A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR SHIELD EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY. MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS STRONG IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS THE SHORTWAVE TREKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. APPROACH OF DEEP TROF WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NEARING PACIFIC NORTHWEST/N CA COAST BY WED/THURS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~ PREFERENCE: 10/12Z ECMWF/GFS BLEND AFTER 12/06Z CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THRU TUESDAY...THEN AVERAGE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THE MID LEVEL MASS FIELDS IS GOOD THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT...SOME SPREAD OPENS UP OVER THE ERN NOPAC WITH RESPECT TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE ECMWF BECAME A BIT STRONGER IN THE 12Z RUN WHICH PUT IT INTO BETTER...ALTHOUGH NOT PERFECT...AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND THE UKMET/CMC REMAINED ON THE DEEP/FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST IS HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN ONLY DROPS TO AVERAGE BY THE END OF DAY 3. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WILL WORK WELL INTO TUESDAY...AT WHICH POINT A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOULD ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTY. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... BANN