MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 138 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2016 VALID OCT 11/0000 UTC THRU OCT 14/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... PRELIMINARY 0Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING PREFERENCE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS PLAINS AND MS VALLEY ON WED INTO NEW ENGLAND THU ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE OVERALL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH/FRONT AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES APPEAR SMALL ENOUGH THAT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND SHOULD STILL SUFFICE. SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS STRONG IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS THE SHORTWAVE TREKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. APPROACH OF DEEP TROF WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NEARING PACIFIC NORTHWEST/N CA COAST BY WED/THURS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~ PREFERENCE: 0Z GFS/UKMET/NAM AND 12Z ECMWF BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE WITH REGARDS TO THE FIRST BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THE GFS/NAM ARE FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH THE ENERGY...WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET FURTHER SOUTHEAST. NO REAL PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME...WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO CAMPS PREFERRED. A MORE INTENSE WAVE AND LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST LATER THURSDAY. ONLY THE 12Z GEM REALLY STANDS OUT AS AN OUTLIER...BEING SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTHWEST. THE GFS/UKMET HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DEEPER/FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. WOULD APPEAR THAT OVERALL THINGS ARE TRENDING DEEPER/SOUTH...BUT WOULD STILL LIKE TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE ECMWF IS OUR PREFERENCE GIVEN THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE RUN TO RUN. THUS A NON GEM BLEND SHOULD GENERALLY HANDLE THE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... CHENARD