MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1212 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 VALID OCT 22/0000 UTC THRU OCT 25/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES LOW PRESSURE FORMING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND... MODELS SHOW GOOD LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT. BASE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING ASHORE THE WEST COAST MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT... PREFERENCE: THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...CONSENSUS AFTER 12Z MONDAY...EQUAL BLEND NAM/GFS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE SOLUTION SPREAD SHOWS AVERAGE INCREASES WITH TIME WITH MOST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS EQUALLY LIKELY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF MOVES TOWARD THE DEEPER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CROSSING WYOMING...AND THUS APPEARS LESS LIKELY COMPARED WITH THE NAM/GFS...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN BECOMES A DEEP OUTLIER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... JAMES