MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1254 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2016 VALID OCT 30/0000 UTC THRU NOV 02/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS/UKMET EVALUATION WITH MODEL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW WED MORNING ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE WHILE THERE ARE DETAIL ISSUES WITH WHETHER THERE WILL BE ONE OR TWO SURFACE CYCLONES OFFSHORE THE NORTHWEST, BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEY ALL BRING STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST WEST OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HERE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS (00Z UKMET, 00Z NAM, 00Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF) SHOWS A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM WITHIN A BUCKLING SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES, WHICH APPEARS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE QUICKER 12Z CANADIAN SOLUTION. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE CONSENSUS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST INTO ONTARIO BY TUE SYSTEM MOVING INTO OREGON MONDAY SYSTEM MOVING BY MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND SUN/MON ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO DEAL WITH ANY LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH