MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1239 AM EDT FRI NOV 04 2016 VALID NOV 04/0000 UTC THRU NOV 07/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS ...LEAD TROUGH/COLD FRONT REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SAT... ...UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE WEST COAST ON SUN... ...ENERGY EJECTING EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MON... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECENS MEAN CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE THE MODELS SHOW A LEAD SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IMPACTING BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SAT WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO A LARGER SCALE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION AND BROADER WEST COAST ON SUN. ALL OF THIS ENERGY WILL PROGRESSIVELY TRAVERSE THE WESTERN U.S. AND THEN EJECT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MON. THE 12Z UKMET IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE INITIAL ENERGY COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND CLIPPING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SAT. ON SUN...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OFFSHORE WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THE WEST COAST. THE 00Z GFS IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. THERE IS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THE FASTER UKMET AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH. THE 00Z NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER/SHARPER WITH THE TROUGH VERSUS THE UKMET/ECMWF CAMP...AND THE 12Z CMC LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD. WILL PREFER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE CONSENSUS GIVEN THE DEVELOPING STRONG QUASI-ZONAL FLOW UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC AND GENERAL TRENDS OVERALL FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL FAVOR A ECMWF/ECENS MEAN CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT...BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE. ...CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WEAKENING THROUGH SUN... PREFERENCE: NON-GFS CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE MODELS TAKE THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN IT AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SUN. THE 00Z GFS GRADUALLY BECOMES A LITTLE SLOWER TO EJECT THIS SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD COMPARED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WILL PREFER A NON-GFS CONSENSUS FOR THE TIME BEING. ...UPPER TROUGHS CROSSING THE NORTHEAST EARLY SAT AND SUN... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL HELP CARVE OUT A DEEPER LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND BY MON. THE 00Z GFS GRADUALLY BECOMES THE DEEPEST SOLUTION OFFSHORE...WITH THE 12Z UKMET QUICKER TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHILE FOCUSING IT ALSO FARTHER WEST. THE 12Z CMC IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND CLUSTER TOGETHER RATHER WELL...SO A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL BE PREFERRED FOR NOW. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON