MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 125 AM EST TUE NOV 08 2016 VALID NOV 08/0000 UTC THRU NOV 11/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/CMC AND ECMWF ...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUES... ...AMPLIFYING OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC ON WED... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL DIG RATHER VIGOROUSLY SOUTHEAST TUES AND WED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF BEFORE THEN EJECTING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE SAME TROUGH AXIS MEANWHILE WILL BE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z UKMET HAS TRENDED BACK TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NO LONGER CARRIES A CLOSED LOW FEATURE DOWN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE 00Z NAM THOUGH SEEMS TO BE PERHAPS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH BOTH POCKETS OF ENERGY THROUGH WED. STRONGER MODEL CLUSTERING FAVORS THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...AND SO A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL BE PREFERRED. ...SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY WED... PREFERENCE: NON-CMC CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DEEP TROUGHING OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY WED. THE 00Z CMC IS A SLOWER AND RELATIVELY STRONGER OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS RATHER WELL CLUSTERED...SO WILL PREFER A NON-CMC CONSENSUS. ...WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS STILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUES AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DAMPEN THIS SYSTEM OUT. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE PREFERRED GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL MASS FIELD AGREEMENT. ...BROAD CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THRU TUES... ...ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY WED/THURS... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS MEAN/12Z ECENS MEAN CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z UKMET BECOMES SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS AGREE IN THERE BEING SOME SW/NE ORIENTED ELONGATION WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT SETTLES OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHERN MEXICO WED AND THURS. THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER...BUT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LED BY THE GEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEAN REPRESENT THE MODEL CONSENSUS RATHER WELL...SO A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL BE PREFERRED. ...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUES/WED... ...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE MODELS SHOW A LOW TO MID LEVEL WEAKNESS ELONGATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY TUES AND WED...AND THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A TAD TOO STRONG WITH THE ENERGY. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF OFFER A WELL CLUSTERED COMPROMISE SOLUTION...AND THIS WILL BE THE PREFERENCE. ...DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST BY FRI... ...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDWEST... PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY FRI WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH THE 00Z UKMET A BIT FASTER. THE 00Z ECMWF VERY CLOSELY REPRESENTS THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND SO THIS SOLUTION WILL BE PREFERRED. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON