MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 141 PM EST MON NOV 14 2016 VALID NOV 14/1200 UTC THRU NOV 18/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING THE UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF AND PREFERENCES LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST... PREFERENCE: ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE FLOW ACROSS QUEBEC...THUS ALLOWING THE LOW TO SHIFT A LITTLE EAST OF ITS PRIOR POSITION ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS POSITION IS NOW NEAR THE CONSENSUS...WITH THE NAM TO ITS WEST AND GFS TO ITS EAST. SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLES...PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES...FAVORS THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE AS THE SPREAD REMAIN HIGHER THAN USUAL. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE ROCKIES WED-THU... LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE PLAINS THU... PREFERENCE: 70 PERCENT 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TO 30 PERCENT 12Z GEFS MEAN CONFIDENCE: LOW THE NEW ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A TAD EAST OF ITS PRIOR RUN FOR THE LOW AND FRONT ENTERING THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH AN AVERAGE OF THE LAST 2 ECMWF RUNS NEARLY EQUAL TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN HAS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF ITS PRIOR LOCATION BUT ONLY BY VERY LITTLE...WITH A SOLUTION ABOUT 2/3RDS TOWARD THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 1/3 GEFS MEAN STILL PREFERRED...MAINLY DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD. AMONG THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...THE NAM SHOWS MORE INTERACTION WITH THE FLOW ACROSS CANADA...THUS ALLOWING THE LOW TO REACH MINNESOTA MORE QUICKLY...WHILE THE GFS LIES WITH THE SLOWER 1/3 AND DEEPER SIDES OF THE GUIDANCE ALOFT CROSSING THE ROCKIES...AND WHILE ITS TRENDED QUICKER...IT HAS ALSO SHOWN GREATER RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY. FINALLY...THE 09Z SREF...PARTICULARLY THE ARW MEMBERS ARE MUCH FASTER AND LIKE THE NAM WHICH IS NOT PREFERRED AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THAT ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS ARE NEEDED FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO REACH CANADA FOR GREATER DATA INGEST INTO THE MODELS...ANOTHER FEW MODEL CYCLES MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE PROJECTING A POSITION WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... JAMES