MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 131 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2016 VALID NOV 15/1200 UTC THRU NOV 19/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. SYSTEM OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-ECMWF COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z ECMWF WAS UNIQUE IN ITS MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z GEFS MEANS SUPPORT THE MORE SOUTHERLY 00Z CANADIAN, 00Z UKMET, 12Z GFS, 12Z NAM CONSENSUS, A COMPROMISE OF WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE/DAYS 3-7 THOUGHTS AS WELL. SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE WEST INTO THE PLAINS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST NORTHERLY WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHILE THE 00Z UKMET IS MOST AMPLIFIED/SOUTHERLY/SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM'S PROGRESSION. WHILE ONE WORRIES ABOUT A SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION LIKE THE UKMET VERIFYING, THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARDS A QUICKER MOVING/MORE NORTHEASTERLY SYSTEM SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY AS THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS MORE OF A KICKER SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. UKMET SKILL SCORES IN THE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER/NEAR THE LOWER 48 HAVE DECLINED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE PAST MONTH AS WELL. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BEST ACCOUNTS FOR MODEL TRENDS, BIASES, AND RECENT VERIFICATION, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED/THU ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO DEAL EFFECTIVELY WITH DETAIL ISSUES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH