MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 131 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016 VALID NOV 18/1200 UTC THRU NOV 22/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY COLORADO LOW FORMING MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM MOVING INTO ATLANTIC CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. A COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE 12Z MODELS SHOULD DEAL WITH ANY LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES EFFECTIVELY, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH