MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 228 AM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017 VALID MAR 18/0000 UTC THRU MAR 21/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. DEEP CYCLONE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST SYSTEM SWINGING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SUNDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS, WITH A BIT OF CONVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE OCCURRING MASS FIELD-WISE WITH THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY AND WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE, SIMILAR TO THE PARALLEL VERSION OF THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS, IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. FOR QPF PREFERENCES, SEE THE WPC QPF DISCUSSION (QPFPFD). www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... Roth