Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
131 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Valid Feb 16/1200 UTC through Feb 20/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...
 
12Z model preferences and confidence intervals
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS initialization errors do not seem to degrade their short
range forecasts.
 
 
Low moving from the Southeast offshore New England
and its associated shortwave aloft
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The guidance shows much better agreement than seen earlier and
lies within the 00z global ensemble clustering.  A compromise of
the 12z ECMWF, 12z GFS, 12z NAM, 12z Canadian, and 12z UKMET is
preferred with above average confidence.


Upper trough digging into the West
Pressure pattern in the Plains/Midwest
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: Non NAM-blend; confidence above average

As usual, the 12z NAM is the strongest with the upper trough --
its usual bias.  As the surface, its low depiction in IA late
Tuesday falls outside the 00z global ensemble spread.  A
compromise of the 12z GFS, 12z UKMET, 12z ECMWF, and 12z Canadian
is preferred with above average confidence.
 
 
Model trends at  www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml 
 
Roth