Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1236 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

Valid Apr 11/0000 UTC thru Apr 14/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z NAM/GFS Evaluation with preliminary model preferences
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NAM/GFS initialization issues do not seem to degrade the short
range forecasts.


System digging/moving from the West into the Plains
Shortwave moving through the Southeast early Wednesday
Shortwave moving through the Northeast Wednesday night
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The guidance shows good agreement with these systems.  A
compromise of the 00z GFS, 00z NAM, 12z Canadian, 12z ECMWF, and
12z UKMET is preferred with above average confidence.


Great Lakes-New England Shortwave/Low Thursday/Friday
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Preference: Non-00z GFS blend; confidence above average

The 00z GFS is a bit weaker than the other guidance with the
parent shortwave, allowing the mid-level ridging to its south to
be stronger which leads to a more northerly surface solution than
the other guidance.  This is an abrupt change from its 18z GFS and
lies on the northern side of the 12z global ensemble guidance.  A
compromise of the 18z GFS, 00z NAM, 12z Canadian, 12z ECMWF, and
12z UKMET is preferred with above average confidence.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Roth