Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EDT Thu May 10 2018

Valid May 10/0000 UTC thru May 13/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model preferences with confidence intervals
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS initialization errors do not seem to degrade their short
range forecasts.


Mid- to upper-level low sagging into the Great Basin
Base of the broad eastern Canadian trough across
Midwest/Mid-Atlantic
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The guidance is converging with the behavior of these systems over
the next few days.  A compromise of the 00z GFS, 00z NAM, 00z
UKMET, 00z Canadian, and 00z ECMWF is preferred with above average
confidence.


Upper trough/low moving east through the Gulf of Mexico
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: GFS/ECMWF/UKMET blend; confidence average

The guidance shows the idea of a broad upper trough progressing
through the Gulf towards FL with time.  The UKMET has trended
southward towards the 00z GFS/00z ECMWF guidance in its rainfall
footprint.  The 00z Canadian/00z NAM were the slowest which led to
the lightest amounts.  The synoptic pattern of fresh trade winds
with an approaching upper trough can be a highly localized wet
pattern for areas downwind of the Bahamas across the southern
peninsula.  Believe a compromise of the 00z GFS/00z ECMWF/00z
UKMET is best overall with this system with average confidence.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Roth