Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1215 AM EDT Sat May 12 2018

Valid May 12/0000 UTC thru May 15/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z NAM/GFS evaluation with preliminary model preferences
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GFS/NAM initialization errors do not seem to degrade their short
range forecasts.


Western Closed low parked over Great Basin
Possibly convective cyclone in the eastern Gulf
Upper trough across eastern Canada/Great Lakes
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The guidance shows good agreement with these systems.  A
compromise of the 12z ECMWF, 12z Canadian, 12z UKMET, 00z GFS, and
00z NAM is preferred with above average confidence.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Roth