Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 AM EDT Sat May 12 2018

Valid May 12/0000 UTC thru May 15/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model preferences with confidence intervals
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GFS/NAM initialization errors do not seem to degrade their short
range forecasts.


Western Closed low parked over Great Basin
Possibly convective cyclone in the northeast Gulf of Mexico
Upper trough across eastern Canada/Great Lakes
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The guidance shows good agreement with these systems.  A
compromise of the 00z ECMWF, 00z Canadian, 00z UKMET, 00z GFS, and
00z NAM should deal with lingering details effectively, and is
preferred with above average confidence.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Roth