Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1258 AM EDT Mon Jun 04 2018

Valid Jun 04/0000 UTC thru Jun 07/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z NAM/GFS evaluation with preliminary preferences
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...Closed low forming over southern Ontario/Quebec today with the
low/upper trough crossing the Northeast Tuesday...
...Related surface low moving through southern Quebec today into
Tuesday...redeveloping over New England on Tuesday...
...Coastal low offshore of the Northeast today/tonight...
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Preference: blend of the 00Z NAM, 00Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF
Confidence: Average

Only minor differences exist with this system relating to
vorticity maxima within the large scale trough axis over the
Northeast. Ensemble means support a solution closer to the 00Z
NAM, 00Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF. This preference also holds true for
the trio of surface lows tied to this section of the nation and
the cold fronts extending into the eastern U.S.


...Shortwave over the Central Plains today, advancing to the lower
MS valley for Tuesday...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Average

Differences with this system are more tied to the mesoscale with
convection than observed on the synoptic scale. No significant
differences were noted in the latest models such that a general
model blend can be used for this system.


...Upper level troughing along the West Coast through Tuesday...
...Embedded shortwave and surface low reaching North
Dakota/south-central Canada Tuesday night...
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Preference: non 12Z UKMET blend
Confidence: Average

The 12Z UKMET stands out as a faster outlier with the 500 mb
trough progression across southern Canada. Outside of the 12Z
UKMET, the models show similarly with this system.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto