Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 AM EDT Mon Jun 04 2018

Valid Jun 04/0000 UTC thru Jun 07/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation with final preferences
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...Closed low forming over southern Ontario/Quebec today with the
low/upper trough crossing the Northeast Tuesday...
...Related surface low moving through southern Quebec today into
Tuesday...redeveloping over New England on Tuesday...
...Coastal low offshore of the Northeast today/tonight...
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Preference: blend of the 00Z NAM, 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF
Confidence: Average

Only minor differences exist with this system relating to
vorticity maxima within the large scale trough axis over the
Northeast. Ensemble means support a solution closer to the 00Z
NAM, 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF. This preference also holds true for
the trio of surface lows tied to this section of the nation and
the cold fronts extending into the eastern U.S. No large-scale
differences were noted with the 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC relative to
their 12Z cycles.


...Shortwave over the Central Plains today, advancing to the lower
MS valley for Tuesday...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Average

Differences with this system are more tied to the mesoscale with
convection than observed on the synoptic scale. No significant
differences were noted in the latest models such that a general
model blend can be used for this system. No large-scale
differences were noted with the 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC relative to
their 12Z cycles.


...Upper level troughing along the West Coast through Tuesday...
...Embedded shortwave and surface low reaching North
Dakota/south-central Canada Tuesday night...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Average

While the 12Z UKMET stood out as a faster outlier with the 500 mb
trough progression across southern Canada, the 00Z UKMET slowed
down enough to include it as part of a general model blend to
smooth out smaller scale differences.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto