Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1257 AM EDT Tue Jun 05 2018

Valid Jun 05/0000 UTC thru Jun 08/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z NAM/GFS evaluation including preliminary preferences
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Closed low/upper trough over southern Quebec sliding thru the
Northeast today...
...Associated surface low moving through southern Quebec and
redeveloping over SE New England today...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: non 12Z CMC blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

Trends over the past 24 hours have been convergent, with only
minor differences remaining with the 12Z CMC slightly faster with
the 500 mb trough axis through the Northeast. Ensemble scatter low
plots show the 12Z CMC surface low near the 40N/70W benchmark is
too far south/east through Wednesday. Therefore, a non 12Z CMC
blend is preferred for this system.


...Lower MS valley shortwave advancing southeastward and stalling
in the NE Gulf thru Thurs...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: non 12Z ECMWF blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

The models are in good agreement with this feature until it
reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. The 12Z ECMWF is
faster to move the trough axis eastward, whereas the consensus in
the deterministic and ensemble guidance is back toward the west.
Trends in the GFS have been slower and so given the greater
support for a slower progression to the east, a non 12Z ECMWF
blend is recommended with this system.


...Mid-level shortwave moving across southern Canada through
Thursday with accompanying surface low/front...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

The models show similarly with this system.


...Large closed low off of the British Columbia coast through the
end of the week...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

The models show similarly with this system.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto