Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
124 AM EDT Wed Jun 06 2018

Valid Jun 06/0000 UTC thru Jun 09/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z NAM/GFS evaluation including preliminary preferences
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...Upper trough moving off of the Northeast U.S. today...
...Associated surface offshore SE New England...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

The models show similarly with this system.


...Central Gulf Coast shortwave advancing eastward and stalling in
the NE Gulf through Friday...
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Preference: non 12Z UKMET blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

The 12Z UKMET stands out from a reasonably well clustered suite of
deterministic and ensemble model guidance.with a secondary, more
organized mid-level vorticity max along the Southeast coast Friday
evening. The 12Z UKMET is not supported largely by the remaining
model guidance/ensemble spaghetti charts.


...Mid-level shortwave moving across southern Canada through
Thursday with accompanying surface low/front eventually the
Northeast Fri...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

The models show similarly with this system.


...Weakly amplified shortwave off CA coast this morning...lifts
through Intermountain West supporting "ridge-rider" MCSs in
Northern/Central Plains Thurs night and Fri...
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Preference: 00Z GFS...00Z GEFS...12Z ECMWF...12Z UKMET blend
Confidence: Below average

While there is good agreement regarding a shortwave tracking
northeastward from the CA coast over the next 24-48 hours, The 00Z
NAM/GFS trended stronger with an MCV from forecast convection that
develops over the central Plains Wednesday night. The 00Z NAM/GFS
are similar through 12Z/08 at which point convective feedback may
be playing a role, especially in the 00Z NAM which has a
relatively strong surface low entering PA by 12Z/09 which is not
supported in the latest ensemble guidance. Confidence drops off at
this point, with a solution near the 00Z GFS/GEFS/12Z ECMWF/12Z
UKMET preferred given broad agreement from these models and at
least some degree of ensemble support, although no clear consensus
stands out at this point.


...Large closed low off of the British Columbia coast through the
end of the week...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

Only minor timing differences exist with this feature, with a
general model blend recommended at this time.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto