Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 AM EDT Wed Jun 06 2018

Valid Jun 06/0000 UTC thru Jun 09/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation including final preferences
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...Note that the 00Z CMC was not available for this discussion...


...Upper trough moving off of the Northeast U.S. today...
...Associated surface offshore SE New England...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

The models show similarly with this system.


...Central Gulf Coast shortwave advancing eastward and stalling in
the NE Gulf through Friday...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

Adjustments made by the 00Z UKMET bring the model in line with the
remaining consensus compared to the 12Z UKMET regarding a
secondary, more organized mid-level vorticity max along the
Southeast coast Friday evening seen in the 12Z cycle. A general
model blend can be used for this system with slightly above
average confidence given relatively small differences.


...Mid-level shortwave moving across southern Canada through
Thursday with accompanying surface low/front eventually the
Northeast Fri...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

The models show similarly with this system.


...Weakly amplified shortwave off CA coast this morning...lifts
through Intermountain West supporting "ridge-rider" MCSs in
Northern/Central Plains Thurs night and Fri...
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Preference: 00Z GFS...00Z GEFS...00Z ECMWF...00Z UKMET blend
Confidence: Below average

While there is good agreement regarding a shortwave tracking
northeastward from the CA coast over the next 24-48 hours, The 00Z
NAM/GFS trended stronger with an MCV from forecast convection that
develops over the central Plains Wednesday night. This trend was
not seen in the 00Z ECMWF and 00Z UKMET. The 00Z NAM/GFS are
similar through 12Z/08 at which point convective feedback may be
playing a role, especially in the 00Z NAM which has a relatively
strong surface low entering PA by 12Z/09 which is not supported in
the latest ensemble guidance. Confidence drops off at this point,
with a solution near the 00Z GFS/GEFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET
preferred given broad agreement from these models and at least
some degree of ensemble support, although no clear consensus
stands out at this point.


...Large closed low off of the British Columbia coast through the
end of the week...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

Only minor timing differences exist with this feature, with a
general model blend recommended at this time. No significant
changes were noted in the 00Z ECMWF/UKMET compared to their 12Z
cycles.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto