Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1214 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Valid Jun 11/1200 UTC thru Jun 15/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z NAM/GFS Evaluation...with Preliminary Preferences
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...Model diagnostic analysis for the CONUS...
 
Preference: Blend of 12Z GFS / 00Z ECMWF

During the 3-day short range period a northern stream trough will
progress from the Rockies/Plains toward the east coast, sweeping
up with it a shear axis that lingers over the Ohio Valley early.
The next Pacific trough will move into the Northwest during this
time, while sub-tropical ridging remains in place over the
Southwest and southern Plains.

The 00Z ECMWF has the most ensemble support with respect to
details of the mid level height fields and at the surface. The 12Z
NAM and GFS also offer solutions that are reasonably close, and
express many of the same concepts. The NAM, however, is probably
too fast to dislodge a low trapped within a rex block over Canada,
and this has some influence on its solution in the northwest U.S.
by Day 3. The NAM may be a better choice than the GFS in the
Northeast, where the GFS shows a bit of its quick bias aloft. In
an overall sense, however, a blend of the GFS/ECMWF probably best
represents consensus throughout the CONUS.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Burke