Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Valid Jun 11/1200 UTC thru Jun 15/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation
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...Model diagnostic analysis for the CONUS...
 
Preference: Blend of 12Z GFS/ECMWF
Confidence: Average

During the 3-day short range period a northern stream trough will
progress from the Rockies/Plains toward the east coast, sweeping
up with it a shear axis that lingers over the Ohio Valley early.
The next Pacific trough will move into the Northwest during this
time, while sub-tropical ridging remains in place over the
Southwest and southern Plains.

The 00Z ECMWF had the most ensemble support with respect to
details of the mid level height fields and at the surface.
The 12Z run was nearly identical except for a somewhat spurious
looking weakness in the height field and associated vorticity
maximum that develops over the southeast states / Florida on Days
2/3. There is no identifiable grid-scale feedback here, but the
overall ensemble support is toward something more like the 12Z GFS
and GEFS Mean in that region.

The 12Z NAM and operational GFS offer solutions that are
reasonably close to the ensemble consensus throughout the northern
stream and within the shear zone beneath the upper ridge in the
southern states. The NAM, however, is probably too fast to
dislodge a low trapped within a rex block over Canada, and this
has some influence on its solution in the northwest by Day 3. The
NAM may be a better choice than the GFS in the Northeast, where
the GFS shows a bit of its quick bias aloft. In an overall sense,
however, a blend of the GFS/ECMWF probably best represents
consensus, with the caveat that the GFS/GEFS is more desirable
over the southeast later in time.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Burke